Retail Therapy or Retail Panic?
This Week in the Market
This week will be driven by rate-cut uncertainty and the market’s sensitivity to upcoming data, with the December 9–10 FOMC meeting now the central focus. The probability of a cut has faded as recent inflation and labor numbers came in firmer than expected, and some economists think the Fed may even push the next cut into January 2026.
This week, we will hear from several key retailers, including the Dollar Stores, Kroger, and Macy's, and their results will give us a clearer read on the health of the consumer. These companies span essentials, value-focused shopping, groceries, and discretionary spending, which makes their commentary especially important
Current Trade Idea: #1 Searched Person on Google this year
This is a lot different from the trades we've previously posted, but we think it's a super valuable trade.
There's a prediction market for who will be the #1 Searched Person on Google this year.
This is based upon a list published by Google that gets released early December.
At first, this market seems to be referring to gross search volume, but instead, it is based on a significant increase in year-over-year growth. This common misconception leaves us room to profit. We'll outline the best way to do so in the next section.
Picking the "NO" on Trump
The data shows that it's practically impossible for Trump to be #1.
Here are a few reasons why:
Trump was the #1 searched person on Google last year.
Trump had multiple assassination attempts and was running for president in 2024; search growth was extreme compared to the prior year.
He’s behind his search volume from last year, according to Google Trends.
Google Trends doesn't tell us the full picture. If we use Wikipedia as a proxy, there’s a significant drop-off in search volume from last year.
So both Google Trends and Wikipedia are telling us that the % year-to-year search growth is negative. Significant growth is the main thing the Google Team looks at while making this list.
As of writing this, the "NO" on Trump is trading at ~87 cents a contract, contracts resolve at 0 cents or 100 cents depending on the resolution, which would yield about 15% in a week or two when they drop the list—powerful returns for something this guaranteed and backed by data.
You can make an account on Kalshi here.
Disclaimer: We own contracts pertaining to the kxranklistgooglesearch Kalshi market as of writing this. The content in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. A4K Capital and its affiliates are not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on the information provided.
