Shutdown Ends, Nerves Don’t
This Week in the Market
This week is going to be heavily influenced by the end of the government shutdown, along with renewed focus on Michael Burry’s short positions in major AI and tech names. The shutdown resolution removes immediate uncertainty, but attention shifts back to economic data delayed during the closure. Investors want to see if growth momentum held up or softened through the disruption. Meanwhile, Burry’s bearish stance sparks debate over inflated tech valuations and the durability of the AI trade.
As of Friday, November 15th, sentiment stays cautious. The S&P 500 trades near recent highs, Treasury yields move unpredictably, traders hesitate to add risk ahead of key data. NVIDIA earnings later this week sit at the center of market direction. The company’s guidance will either reinforce confidence in the AI growth story or validate the growing fear that the sector’s momentum has peaked. Either outcome carries enough weight to set the tone for the remainder of the quarter.
Current Trade Idea: ORCL
Oracle (ORCL) hit the accelerator at the last earnings report—shares spiked after the company unveiled large-scale AI/cloud deals and raised its cloud infrastructure growth targets.
The stock has since given up all of these gains due to uncertainty around valuation, the feasibility of growth targets, and debt concerns.
We believe the stock price is getting to the point where it looks attractive. We've outlined our strategy in the next section.
Oracle (ORCL) – Non-Linear Accumulation Strategy
Our approach is structured around staged accumulation, increasing size into weakness. Initial exposure is minimal at these levels, with size ramped aggressively as price dislocates downward further. This non-linear allocation optimizes the risk-reward by lowering our average cost basis and maximizing upside on the rebound.
At scale, the position is designed to capture asymmetric upside should Oracle reclaim momentum within its cloud and AI transition cycle. The strategy leans on patience, discipline, and conviction in a company positioned at the intersection of enterprise data, AI infrastructure, and long-term digital transformation.
We have been buying a very small amount below $230, and plan to add more under $200. We believe in ORCL's long-term potential.
Disclaimer: We own shares of ORCL as of writing this. The content in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. A4K Capital and its affiliates are not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on the information provided.
