https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive daily 0.75 2026-03-24 https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/chaos-creates-cash monthly 0.5 2026-03-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a605f368-879c-4591-b616-557693937e49/soldier34.jpg Newsletter Archive - Chaos Creates Cash - This Week in the Market This week is going to be heavily driven by escalation in the Iran war and the resulting surge in oil prices. Tension around the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about global supply, pushing crude higher and forcing markets to reprice inflation and growth expectations quickly. Even without full disruption, the risk premium alone has been enough to shift macro sentiment. At the same time, equity markets have moved lower as higher energy costs begin to weigh on the outlook. Major indices have pulled back, with growth stocks seeing added pressure as investors rotate toward safety and price in potential economic slowdown. For now, oil remains the key driver, with broader markets reacting closely to each development in the conflict. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/5447271e-5bff-406c-8da9-9013097768bc/iran43.jpg Newsletter Archive - Chaos Creates Cash - Trading the War Most people see a war and immediately pile into defense stocks, oil derivatives, and safe-haven assets. That approach can work if you are extremely early, but by the time the narrative becomes obvious, much of the move is already priced in. Instead, the real edge comes from trading the reversion. Whether it's oil overshooting to the upside or equities selling off too aggressively, these moves tend to reverse as uncertainty diminishes. The most straightforward is buying the dip on equities; the next section outlines a strategy we like. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/4378cbd9-4b40-4a07-a212-d96ce2d253ec/calc23.jpg Newsletter Archive - Chaos Creates Cash - Call Debit Spreads on Index Funds Call debit spreads on index funds offer a simple way to gain leveraged exposure to broad market upside while keeping risk defined. By buying a call and simultaneously selling a higher strike call, you reduce upfront cost compared to owning a single call, while still capturing a meaningful portion of the move higher. This structure allows for efficient capital deployment without taking on unlimited downside. "At the money" (ATM), call debit spreads for 2027 on SPY or QQQ can yield 70-100% if we see even a small recovery from the purchase point. We can layer these strategically to capture a significant gain. We plan to buy these spreads when SPY is down 11% from the highs, and double down (into new ATM spreads) every extra 5% it drops. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/tariff-talk-and-tehran-tension monthly 0.5 2026-02-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/355db583-54dc-4443-8795-596a6ecb6428/oil243.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tariff Talk and Tehran Tension - This Week in the Market The market is currently driven by the reaction to the Supreme Court ruling on tariff authority, along with renewed geopolitical noise surrounding Iran. The tariff decision reinforces institutional checks and reduces the likelihood of sudden unilateral trade escalation, which markets are interpreting as stabilizing rather than disruptive. At the same time, tension involving Iran has added a layer of risk premium, particularly across energy markets. However, there has been no meaningful disruption to global flow, and diplomatic channels remain active. In our view, markets are responding more to headline intensity than to fundamental deterioration. Unless escalation materially changes the economic backdrop, the current environment appears more reactive than negative. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/28bfdb9b-82d9-4cc6-8b04-7f4c30b05a9b/rocket435.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tariff Talk and Tehran Tension - IPO Hype IPO hype has returned as a growing number of private companies prepare to go public this year. After a long period of delay and valuation reset, investors appear more confident in market conditions and pricing stability. Several high-profile names, including OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, and Discord, plan to IPO this year. The next section will outline some important considerations before trading new IPOs. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/5b3a2a85-7f2e-444a-8dd5-63f86555d7ff/ipolockup2348.png Newsletter Archive - Tariff Talk and Tehran Tension - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/capex-fears monthly 0.5 2026-02-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/86ae32e1-7b25-4565-850d-b2189ad37f08/bigtech34.jpg Newsletter Archive - CapEx Fears - This Week in the Market This week is being driven by concern around capital expenditure guidance, particularly from Big Tech, signaling spend far above what the market was prepared for. The fear is not that demand is collapsing, but that AI investment may take longer to translate into returns. Big Tech is choosing to invest aggressively in long-term capacity while the market demands near-term efficiency. We do not believe this is as alarming as price action suggests. Elevated capex signals confidence, not weakness, and history has shown that periods of heavy investment often precede the next leg of durable growth. In our view, this reaction is more about patience than proof, and markets are overcorrecting to uncertainty rather than evidence. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a53e9cba-861b-4065-b75e-b0ac7ce9c067/money432.jpg Newsletter Archive - CapEx Fears - Taking Advantage of CapEx Fears It would be foolish to assume all of Big Tech is just burning 100's of billions of dollars with no plan. The market will realize their fears are irrational but in the meantime we can get some good deals. Both MSFT and AMZN are down significantly from their highs and seem to be safe plays. Both companies announced far higher CapEx guidance which sent their shares lower. We prefer AMZN and will outline a buying strategy in the next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1a5eb1f3-6383-498b-9511-a8a66d7f5b2d/amzn234.png Newsletter Archive - CapEx Fears - Amazon.com, Inc (AMZN) – Non-Linear Accumulation Strategy Our approach is structured around staged accumulation, increasing size into weakness. Initial exposure is minimal at these levels, with size ramped aggressively as price dislocates downward further. This non-linear allocation optimizes the risk-reward by lowering our average cost basis and maximizing upside on the rebound. We believe AMZN under $210 is a good buying zone, but it's important to get more aggressive if the price falls below $200. We have been buying below $210, and plan to add significantly upon further weakness. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/processing-prosperity monthly 0.5 2026-02-22 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/360418d4-1502-4649-a20e-4f2f9eef68e4/ice78349.jpg Newsletter Archive - Processing Prosperity - This Week in the Market This week is being shaped by the geopolitical signaling out of Greenland and the tone set at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Discussions around Greenland have highlighted long-term strategic investment, resource development, and Arctic infrastructure rather than near-term conflict, which markets are interpreting as constructive rather than destabilizing. While initial headlines sparked outsized concern and speculation, the situation de-escalated quickly, with clear communication and swift coordination preventing it from becoming a prolonged issue. The markets are still down from the Greenland fears, although we believe it won't be long before that changes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/52e93252-d81d-46fe-bafc-afd7d538387e/cc234u8.jpg Newsletter Archive - Processing Prosperity - The introduction of a 10% credit card interest cap originated as a proposal from President Trump and marks a meaningful shift in consumer finance policy. The move is aimed at easing pressure on the household balance sheet by limiting excessive interest burden. There are many misconceptions around this proposal that give us an opportunity to make money: This is not solidified, and the banks will lobby against this. This affects credit card issuers (banks) much more than payment processors (Visa and Mastercard) Trump only wants this for one year, so it's not a permanent thing at all. He knows it's not sustainable. The next section outlines our trade around this theme. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/b58d2b80-85fe-4865-bdd0-ccae8f7ca2e7/cc789.jpg Newsletter Archive - Processing Prosperity - Payment Processors - Buying the Dip We view buying Visa or Mastercard on this dip as easy money. Payment processors have insane profit margins, and people are overestimating the negative impacts of the possible 10% credit interest cap. Buying stock, selling puts, and buying calls are all good ways of getting exposure in accordance with your risk tolerance. We prefer Mastercard at the moment over Visa, but both are perfectly fine. We see a 10% percent upside in both names. This can get stretched to a 20-30% upside pretty easily using call options, but it's important to be careful, as options are not suitable for all investors. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/new-year-new-gains monthly 0.5 2026-01-13 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/d5a29b13-6e53-4ab1-a9f6-e34e6d846e1a/ChatGPT+Image+Jan+12%2C+2026%2C+01_13_33+AM.png Newsletter Archive - New Year, New Gains - 2025 Annual Recap 2025 was defined by the collision of ambition with reality. The AI boom moved from early euphoria into a phase of validation as major investment in data center, cloud, and compute infrastructure began to translate into real-world deployment. The tariff scare added a temporary macro shock, but it also highlighted the resilience of the global supply chain and corporate balance sheet. By year's end, market tone felt more grounded rather than broken. Tech leadership narrowed toward the highest quality operator, speculative excess faded, and capital rotated toward business with strong cash flow, pricing power, and long-term relevance. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/bb524a85-554e-446a-93c6-9e78918f9306/ai32.jpg Newsletter Archive - New Year, New Gains - 2026 Market Outlook This year, we expect many IPOs, lower interest rates, and even more AI hype. What we're bullish on: AI Stocks Private Company Valuations Gold/Silver What we're bearish on: Oil Legacy Software Companies We expect the S&P500 to be up around 20% next year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/19557669-ae4d-43f9-a5f2-35f01e524d0d/gs457.jpg Newsletter Archive - New Year, New Gains - Shorting Oil Via Futures We are increasingly bearish on crude oil and believe the price is on a path toward a new 52-week low. Global supply remains elevated while demand growth show clear sign of slowing, especially as economic momentum cools across major regions. OPEC discipline weakens, U.S. shale output remains strong, and inventory continues to build. With macro conditions tightening and consumption growth fading, the oil market looks exposed to a deeper downside move. Crude oil futures offer a direct and highly leveraged way to express this view, including both the standard WTI contract and the Micro WTI contract. Each standard contract controls 1,000 barrels of oil, meaning a one-dollar move equals a $1,000 profit or loss, while the Micro controls 100 barrels with a $100 move per dollar. This embedded leverage allows traders to scale position size with precision while still capturing meaningful returns from small price movements. Used properly, oil futures provide one of the most efficient ways to capitalize on a directional macro trade. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/proof-over-promises monthly 0.5 2025-12-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/9ca466e8-a69d-497d-a9bb-3f2171b868cc/def3279.jpg Newsletter Archive - Proof Over Promises - This Week in the Market This week will be heavily influenced by the market digesting last week's Federal Reserve rate cut and its implications for the pace of easing in 2026. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting, but the messaging was cautious and signaled that future moves will remain highly data-dependent. The market is once again concerned about tech valuations, although we remain bullish. In our view, this creates a setup where the market is less forgiving of misses and more demanding of proof. Forward-looking optimism is taking a back seat to near-term execution, and investors are focused on what is actually working rather than what could work later. We believe this will reverse in the coming weeks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/76deaf89-aeb1-4323-bbc3-a3829529a5c0/goog23.jpg Newsletter Archive - Proof Over Promises - Past Trade: 15% in 3 Days In a recent newsletter, we highlighted a non-traditional trade in the prediction market for the number one searched person on Google this year, driven by a mispricing around how the list is actually determined. The ranking is based on year-over-year growth in search interest rather than absolute volume, which led us to take the NO side on Trump. The trade was resolved just three days later. With search momentum declining versus last year across Google Trends and Wikipedia page views, a repeat appearance was unlikely under Google methodology. The NO contract moved from roughly 87 cents to 100 cents, delivering about a 15 percent return in three days. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/d15dec38-cde6-40a8-bd42-430d8af41b9c/orcl4837.jpg Newsletter Archive - Proof Over Promises - Position Update: Oracle In November, we put out a newsletter outlining our view that Oracle represented an attractive opportunity below the $200 level and that we would look to build a larger position if the stock pulled back into that range. Following earnings, Oracle did exactly that, with the stock selling off and giving us the opportunity to execute on that plan. While the initial market reaction to earnings was negative, we viewed the move as a valuation-driven reset rather than a deterioration in the long-term story. Investors are scared that Oracle will not make enough profits to pay off its debts. We believe this fear is irrational and will continue to scale into this name as it bleeds further. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/retail-therapy-or-retail-panic monthly 0.5 2025-12-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/b063a24c-8c9e-44f3-943c-ca17deb67679/soter329.jpg Newsletter Archive - Retail Therapy or Retail Panic? - This Week in the Market This week will be driven by rate-cut uncertainty and the market’s sensitivity to upcoming data, with the December 9–10 FOMC meeting now the central focus. The probability of a cut has faded as recent inflation and labor numbers came in firmer than expected, and some economists think the Fed may even push the next cut into January 2026. This week, we will hear from several key retailers, including the Dollar Stores, Kroger, and Macy's, and their results will give us a clearer read on the health of the consumer. These companies span essentials, value-focused shopping, groceries, and discretionary spending, which makes their commentary especially important https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/28c07043-f956-4b07-9d95-855c2c864d9c/google07842.jpg Newsletter Archive - Retail Therapy or Retail Panic? - Current Trade Idea: #1 Searched Person on Google this year This is a lot different from the trades we've previously posted, but we think it's a super valuable trade. There's a prediction market for who will be the #1 Searched Person on Google this year. This is based upon a list published by Google that gets released early December. At first, this market seems to be referring to gross search volume, but instead, it is based on a significant increase in year-over-year growth. This common misconception leaves us room to profit. We'll outline the best way to do so in the next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/7dc30e33-5d8f-4ab4-87ea-5760602cf472/trump234.jpg Newsletter Archive - Retail Therapy or Retail Panic? - Picking the "NO" on Trump The data shows that it's practically impossible for Trump to be #1. Here are a few reasons why: Trump was the #1 searched person on Google last year. Trump had multiple assassination attempts and was running for president in 2024; search growth was extreme compared to the prior year. He’s behind his search volume from last year, according to Google Trends. Google Trends doesn't tell us the full picture. If we use Wikipedia as a proxy, there’s a significant drop-off in search volume from last year. So both Google Trends and Wikipedia are telling us that the % year-to-year search growth is negative. Significant growth is the main thing the Google Team looks at while making this list. As of writing this, the "NO" on Trump is trading at ~87 cents a contract, contracts resolve at 0 cents or 100 cents depending on the resolution, which would yield about 15% in a week or two when they drop the list—powerful returns for something this guaranteed and backed by data. You can make an account on Kalshi here. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/shutdown-ends-nerves-dont monthly 0.5 2025-11-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/3d67c649-507b-4e92-b9b8-65c5955f7af3/chip3740.jpg Newsletter Archive - Shutdown Ends, Nerves Don’t - This Week in the Market This week is going to be heavily influenced by the end of the government shutdown, along with renewed focus on Michael Burry’s short positions in major AI and tech names. The shutdown resolution removes immediate uncertainty, but attention shifts back to economic data delayed during the closure. Investors want to see if growth momentum held up or softened through the disruption. Meanwhile, Burry’s bearish stance sparks debate over inflated tech valuations and the durability of the AI trade. As of Friday, November 15th, sentiment stays cautious. The S&P 500 trades near recent highs, Treasury yields move unpredictably, traders hesitate to add risk ahead of key data. NVIDIA earnings later this week sit at the center of market direction. The company’s guidance will either reinforce confidence in the AI growth story or validate the growing fear that the sector’s momentum has peaked. Either outcome carries enough weight to set the tone for the remainder of the quarter. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/63bf72e9-fc5c-4b89-996c-211ced8ac7ed/orcl923.jpg Newsletter Archive - Shutdown Ends, Nerves Don’t - Current Trade Idea: ORCL Oracle (ORCL) hit the accelerator at the last earnings report—shares spiked after the company unveiled large-scale AI/cloud deals and raised its cloud infrastructure growth targets. The stock has since given up all of these gains due to uncertainty around valuation, the feasibility of growth targets, and debt concerns. We believe the stock price is getting to the point where it looks attractive. We've outlined our strategy in the next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a6039b0d-43cf-425d-81ca-d3e1c794cfe0/orcl32.jpg Newsletter Archive - Shutdown Ends, Nerves Don’t - Oracle (ORCL) – Non-Linear Accumulation Strategy Our approach is structured around staged accumulation, increasing size into weakness. Initial exposure is minimal at these levels, with size ramped aggressively as price dislocates downward further. This non-linear allocation optimizes the risk-reward by lowering our average cost basis and maximizing upside on the rebound. At scale, the position is designed to capture asymmetric upside should Oracle reclaim momentum within its cloud and AI transition cycle. The strategy leans on patience, discipline, and conviction in a company positioned at the intersection of enterprise data, AI infrastructure, and long-term digital transformation. We have been buying a very small amount below $230, and plan to add more under $200. We believe in ORCL's long-term potential. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/tech-checks-in monthly 0.5 2025-11-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1eab6747-189c-41a6-98f0-631edb1f3514/money392.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tech Checks In - This Week in the Market Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet all reported results that showed a mix of strong revenue growth and cautious guidance. While several companies posted earnings beats, investors still have their concerns regarding AI spend and valuations. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, citing slowing job growth and softer consumer spending. Officials framed it as a proactive move to support continued growth while inflation trends lower. This sets the backdrop for the week ahead, with markets building momentum on renewed optimism that lower rates will further fuel corporate investment and strengthen risk appetite across sectors. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/e59fa1d4-8a78-4a1f-a6de-fa7d86afb11d/AI783.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tech Checks In - Reviewing Past Trade: AMZN Amazon has rebounded sharply since our initial write-up two weeks ago, validating our pick. The stock went from about $212 a share to about $254 a share, marking about a 20% increase. Amazon earnings were reported last Thursday and sentiment has shifted as investors refocus on Amazon’s core growth drivers, particularly AWS, which continues to post resilient margins and expanding demand for AI infrastructure. Amazon operates at the intersection of several transformative industries, including artificial intelligence, robotics, and cloud computing. We still believe there's further upside in the long term but entering now has increased downside. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/76c2e32a-bc25-4ab1-a3c1-7592f3a4a3cd/predict32.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tech Checks In - Prediction Markets - Alternative Alpha Prediction markets offer a unique way to generate alpha by turning collective intelligence into tradable probabilities. You can place bets on anything from foreign elections to the Oscars. They consolidate information from a wide range of participants, often reacting faster than traditional models or media coverage. Prediction markets have become an important source of forward-looking insight, Kalshi is the only one currently legal and regulated in the United States, operating under federal oversight, while Polymarket remains offshore and restricted for U.S. users. In many cases, the “no” side of an event tends to hold more alpha because markets often overvalue dramatic or attention-grabbing outcomes. For example, in the Kalshi market asking whether Trump will be out as president this year, the “yes” contracts trade at a premium due to media noise and speculative sentiment. Taking the “no” side reflects a contrarian, probability-driven approach that benefits from mean reversion as reality sets in, allowing traders to capture steady edge from overpricing of extreme scenarios. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/resurfacing-tariff-fears monthly 0.5 2025-10-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a746683a-2a91-49d8-aa74-56bf25d7e8da/btc32.jpg Newsletter Archive - Resurfacing Tariff Fears - This Week in the Market This week’s market tone is being shaped by persistent tariff fears and the growing anticipation of another Fed rate cut. The tariffs, while intended as leverage in trade negotiations, have begun to pressure input costs and sentiment. We don’t believe their current form is sustainable; they’re more of a bargaining chip than a lasting policy. The crypto market faced a major wave of forced liquidations this week as a surge in macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff-related fears triggered sharp declines across major digital assets. Over nineteen billion dollars in leveraged positions were wiped out, with most of the damage coming from long traders in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The sell-off exposed how fragile liquidity and sentiment remain in highly leveraged markets, as cascading margin calls quickly accelerated price declines. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/080d92a1-d2b7-4c76-bfd3-90d54002a453/amzn34.jpg Newsletter Archive - Resurfacing Tariff Fears Current Trade Idea: AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has experienced a volatile start to 2025. Its share price has declined notably, driven in our view by tariff-related cost pressures and investor caution surrounding its cloud market share. We believe the tariff-related cost pressures are temporary and will not be a long-term issue for Amazon. Investors are worried about how fast Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure are growing, in our view, they are growing faster just because they are much smaller than Amazon's AWS. AWS is still the dominant cloud and is growing at a very impressive rate. We like buying shares here in a non-linear fashion with the possibility of converting to LEAPS if there is a significant downturn. We will cover this strategy in our next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/9f36261d-7ba0-41c0-a11b-24327836264e/amznu3.jpg Newsletter Archive - Resurfacing Tariff Fears - Amazon (AMZN) – Non-Linear Accumulation Strategy + LEAPS Our approach centers on a staged accumulation framework, increasing exposure strategically into a price decline. Initial positioning remains light at current levels, with size expanding disproportionately as prices pull back further. This non-linear scaling allows us to optimize entry, lower our average cost basis, and position for amplified gains when the stock re-rates higher. At scale, the position is designed to capture asymmetric upside as Amazon’s fundamentals reassert themselves. Our strategy prioritizes patience and precision while preparing to convert a portion of the position into long-dated LEAPS if market dislocation deepens. LEAPS, or Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities, are options contracts with expirations longer than one year. They allow investors to gain leveraged exposure to a stock’s long-term upside by controlling a large number of shares with a relatively small upfront premium. This means investors can amplify potential returns if the stock appreciates, while limiting downside risk to the cost of the option. For fundamentally strong companies like Amazon, LEAPS offer an efficient way to express long-term conviction and maximize upside participation with less capital deployed. LEAPS should be used carefully and may not be suitable for all investors. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/h1-b-haircuts monthly 0.5 2025-09-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/cce43178-b088-44c1-b04d-c925ec888070/h1b328704.png Newsletter Archive - H1-B Haircuts - This Week in the Market This week is being shaped by two threads: Washington’s moves on H-1B visas and the Fed’s rate cut. The new visa framework initially spooked headlines, but the market view is that the burden will mostly fall on employees through lower compensation, not companies through higher costs. Meanwhile, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps, with Powell signaling that more easing is likely in the months ahead—potentially as soon as next month. That dovish stance keeps the tailwind behind risk assets, anchoring expectations for a soft landing. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/6434c68e-358c-486a-8616-ed4713bbd16a/doc890.jpg Newsletter Archive - H1-B Haircuts - Reviewing Past Trade: ATYR Two newsletters ago, our trade idea segment revolved around shorting ATYR and hedging the position. We combined a combination of Shorting Stock, Shorting Puts, Buying Calls. aTyr Pharma collapsed after its lead drug efzofitimod failed to meet the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial for pulmonary sarcoidosis. With little revenue, heavy cash burn, and few other near-term catalysts, investors slashed valuations, sending the stock down over 80%. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/2042057e-d6a7-4dc3-a05b-1e07cde1d608/quantum42.jpg Newsletter Archive - H1-B Haircuts - Trade Update: QBTS We mentioned shorting QBTS back in May, the stock has doubled since then but we are protected to an extent through the mentioned delta-hedge and credit enhancement techniques. The two main catalysts for this stock trading higher is the recently signed Tech Pact (no mention of QBTS but provides quantum hype) as well as a short squeeze (we personally know people and firms covering or getting liquidated). We still maintain a strong stance that this is a very weak company, being priced like they're on the verge of useful Quantum Computing. Insiders at the company tell us a Gate-Based Model (the important type of Quantum Computing) is no where in sight. We've added about 50% to our position last Friday, and plan to add if things get even more out of hand. Position sizing and hedging is key during a short squeeze. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/the-celebrity-coin-curse monthly 0.5 2025-09-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a045d570-a5ae-4c6f-82e9-72d9b7722ea9/wallet23.jpg Newsletter Archive - The Celebrity Coin Curse - This Week in the Market This week is being shaped by several key macro developments: anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut on Wednesday, September 10, a closely watched labor report, signs of consumer weakness, and surprisingly strong demand for AI technologies. The growing expectation of a mid-week rate reduction is injecting hope for economic relief, though weak retail and sentiment data hint at persistent consumer fragility. At the same time, surging AI interest is creating optimism across the markets, leaving conditions both cautious in traditional sectors and bullish in innovation-driven areas. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/f0d64ee9-a91f-4f11-857d-91a6528471f6/piggybank32.jpg Newsletter Archive - The Celebrity Coin Curse - Trade Idea: Shorting YZY Money YZY Money, Kanye West’s celebrity token, has entered with heavy hype but follows a familiar pattern we have seen with other celebrity-backed coins. These tokens typically enjoy an initial surge from fan enthusiasm before rapidly losing steam as liquidity dries up and speculative interest fades. In our view, YZY Money shows the same hallmarks, making it an appealing short opportunity given the lack of fundamentals and the historical track record of celebrity coins collapsing once the hype cycle passes. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/c9491002-bc2b-4217-b9f7-f44454f7e737/yzy97.png Newsletter Archive - The Celebrity Coin Curse - YZY Money – Perpetual Futures Our approach is simply entering a short perpetual futures position on YZY Money, while using a trailing stop-loss to avoid random spike liquidations. This can be accomplished using a futures exchange - we use BloFin Leverage is offered on these contracts but we don't prefer it. We don't have a planned exit price in this case. We expect the coin to trend towards zero indefinitely. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/powell-hour monthly 0.5 2025-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/85d37b1b-9fb8-467c-846f-c14cef671aad/jpow32478.png Newsletter Archive - Powell Hour - This Week in the Market This week is being defined by two moments: Powell’s remarks from Jackson Hole and Nvidia’s earnings report. Powell leaned dovish and signaled that rate cuts are still on the table, which has buoyed market sentiment—if he had held back, risk assets could’ve slid. Now the spotlight shifts to Nvidia. As the AI bellwether, Nvidia’s results will reveal whether hyper-scaling spending is still accelerating—or if demand is beginning to fade. Expectations are sky-high. A strong print would reinforce tech outperformance, while anything less could drag down the broader growth complex. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/c80bbc0f-a3b7-4e6b-a26d-a0a8a5b77cac/lung7324.jpg Newsletter Archive - Powell Hour - Current Trade: Shorting ATYR aTyr Pharma (ATYR) is a clinical-stage biotech company primarily working on a treatment for pulmonary interstitial lung disease. Upon a deeper dive, we noticed they've been desperately trying to make their treatment work for over a decade, with no real progress. We believe their underlying science is flawed and we've initiated a 3-part short position in preparation for their Phase 3 trial results in mid-September. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/trade-wars-amp-cloud-wars monthly 0.5 2025-08-23 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/0d81f09f-0206-41ba-b4e9-1d92699dc8a2/tag729835.jpg Newsletter Archive - Trade Wars & Cloud Wars - This Week in the Market Global markets are once again stirred by an uptick in trade tensions: tariffs on India and a handful of other nations have just taken effect. These levies—ranging from tech exports to industrial goods—are driving both headline risk and selective sector rotation. Yet amid the uncertainty, equities hover just below all-time highs, buoyed by resilient earnings and receding recession fears. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/27e1b491-ba8e-4843-b071-47687c642cc5/apy48037.jpg Newsletter Archive - Trade Wars & Cloud Wars - How to Trade Post-Earnings Earnings season is in full swing, and price reactions often overshoot. Dip-buying irrelevant price weakness tends to be the more reliable strategy. If a company reports solid fundamentals but the stock slumps—often due to short-term jitters or excessive sell-side commentary—that’s frequently a prime buying opportunity. Shorting irrelevant strength is a trickier play. Stocks sometimes rally out of bulls-eye optimism even when guidance is shaky—traders can get caught chasing momentum at the cost of risk. In general, fading unjustified dips is the cleaner entry, especially when earnings catalysts are well understood. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/a8055967-ca65-4b5c-a8c5-a0a5a2584872/amzn784.jpg Newsletter Archive - Trade Wars & Cloud Wars - Amazon (AMZN) – Post Earnings Amazon’s latest earnings were objectively strong—double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and another solid beat in AWS. Yet the stock still caught some selling pressure post-report. The main culprit? Investor anxiety over cloud market share after Microsoft Azure posted one of its best growth rates in recent quarters. The knee-jerk narrative was that AWS might be losing momentum. In reality, AWS is still expanding at scale, with growth rates that remain healthy for a business its size. More importantly, the cloud market is not a zero-sum game—global cloud spend is accelerating, and AWS continues to hold a commanding position in enterprise adoption, with sticky, long-term contracts that blunt competitive threats. The sell-off looks more like overreaction than a fundamental shift. If anything, strong Azure numbers confirm that cloud demand as a whole is booming—meaning AWS will benefit alongside its peers. For long-term holders, that makes the recent dip an opportunity, not a warning sign. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/short-squeezes monthly 0.5 2025-07-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/d43001de-5a88-465d-9515-c1bec7ec5057/money972346.jpg Newsletter Archive - Short Squeezes - Global equity markets closed the week at record highs, led by solid earnings in tech—particularly Alphabet and other AI-centric firms—fueling a broad risk-on sentiment. Over the next two weeks, results from the largest tech names—Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—will set the tone for the rest of the summer. With valuations stretched and expectations sky-high, this earnings cycle has the potential to either fuel the rally further or trigger the first real pullback investors have seen in months. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/9c331133-f204-456d-a398-e974172f1642/qbts9732.png Newsletter Archive - Short Squeezes - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/9937e552-28f9-4053-adf2-5d7828e05cff/squeeze087253.jpg Newsletter Archive - Short Squeezes - Profiting from Short Squeezes Short squeezes happen when too many traders are betting against a stock, and a sudden surge in buying forces them to cover, sending prices even higher. It’s pure mechanics—shorts panic, buy back shares, and create a feedback loop that rockets the stock. Recently, we’ve seen this play out in Kohl’s, where relentless retail buying and option flow ripped the stock up nearly 40% in a single day. Krispy Kreme pulled the same move—blowing out shorts and spiking aggressively with no fundamental reason, just sentiment and positioning gone wrong for bears. The way to profit is to hit the reversal as soon as the squeeze runs out of buyers at the top. These moves are purely mechanical—once shorts have covered, there’s nothing holding the price up. You fade the spike immediately after the parabolic blow‑up, size aggressively while liquidity is still there, and ride the collapse back to reality. The best trades come from attacking the overextension while everyone else is still celebrating the rally. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/a-fresh-wave-of-optimism-ahead monthly 0.5 2025-07-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/5f0799f6-996e-4a68-b570-fc733c81bc04/newspaper70845.jpg Newsletter Archive - A Fresh Wave of Optimism Ahead - This week, the market is riding high, fueled by the passage of the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Investors are excited about the tax cuts, infrastructure investments, and a more robust defense spending plan. We believe the provisions will support continued economic growth, drive job creation, and boost consumer confidence in the long run. While there are still some concerns, the overall momentum is strong, and the market is positioning for further gains. As of July 14th, the S&P 500 is breaking through new highs, reflecting the positive market reaction to the bill's passage. With strong corporate earnings, a solid economic foundation, and investor confidence on the rise, it’s clear that the market is setting up for a continued upward trajectory. The outlook remains highly favorable, and we expect the momentum to carry into the second half of the year. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/5f64bacc-9a94-4259-8996-90e31112354d/research93875y.jpg Newsletter Archive - A Fresh Wave of Optimism Ahead - Reviewing Past Trade Idea: CAPR Short We took profit on most of our position as CAPR continued its downward movement. The FDA unexpectedly dropped their decision ahead of schedule, which has added additional volatility and caused the price to crash. With this in mind, a short secured put strategy could still be profitable, and so could a raw short as there is no FDA approval risk. Just be mindful of borrow fees when shorting. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/228c98f2-f364-4f58-a325-7abf7d5c3b71/house023875.jpg Newsletter Archive - A Fresh Wave of Optimism Ahead - Trade Idea: FICO Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) recently saw a sharp pullback, currently trading around $1,550. The decline was mainly triggered by the FHFA’s decision to allow the use of a competitor’s credit scoring model, VantageScore 4.0, for mortgages. However, we believe this move won’t significantly impact FICO’s dominant position in the market, as their scores remain the industry standard for most lending decisions. We are buying shares. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/world-war-3-cancelled monthly 0.5 2025-07-01 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/dda43a63-827f-48f2-b7a2-883adb65de66/interest3489.jpg Newsletter Archive - World War 3 Cancelled - This Week in the Market This week, markets are experiencing a wave of optimism as global tensions ease and expectations for interest rate cuts grow. As we predicted, the Iran-Israel situation got sorted out, causing markets to reach new all-time highs. With inflation pressures subsiding and the Federal Reserve signaling a more dovish stance, investors are gaining confidence in the potential for economic stabilization and growth. Looking ahead, the market is poised to continue its upward trajectory. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1a7bb9b0-92ee-42c9-a5a2-9e74ce7f95b0/ai97435.jpg Newsletter Archive - World War 3 Cancelled - Reviewing Past Trade Idea: NVDA In our first ever newsletter we picked NVDA as our "Current Trade Idea". The stock was trading at $94.31 as of writing that and now it's up at $157.75, delivering a return of over 66%. We have taken profit but NVDIA maintains a near-monopoly on AI chips so it's understood why many still hold the stock. Our strategy was non-linear accumulation, which you can read more about here: https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/tariff-trouble In hindsight we could've picked a much more aggressive strategy like call options but hindsight is always more clear. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1c07b408-125f-4fdb-ac0b-e94ca7994567/research0382.jpg Newsletter Archive - World War 3 Cancelled - Trade Idea: Shorting Capricor Therapeutics Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR) has rallied hard due to optimism on their cell therapy for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy. There are many reasons we believe their therapy is ineffective including weak data, shady sample sizing, links to people behind Cassava Sciences (crashed on FDA decision), and raw science. The FDA decision for CAPR will be announced Aug 31rst. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/world-war-3 monthly 0.5 2025-06-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/af65af8c-dfb8-461f-991e-6c9d3eabeeb5/fire0834.jpg Newsletter Archive - World War 3? - This Week in the Market This week is going to be heavily influenced by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which has introduced a new wave of geopolitical risk to global markets. The significance and intensity of the strikes—targeting military and nuclear infrastructure—sets this conflict apart from those in recent years. If this tit-for-tat continues, it has the potential to disrupt oil markets, derail nuclear diplomacy, and inject sustained volatility into equities. That said, we believe things won’t escalate to a full-scale war. Both sides are posturing, and while the risk of miscalculation is high, there’s still incentive for restraint behind the scenes. Nobody wants escalation. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/563155a4-cfe5-43da-bdfb-922a3736ea9f/bullets083274.jpg Newsletter Archive - World War 3? - Buying the Dip Historically, war-driven market selloffs have created some of the most reliable buying opportunities. When fear peaks and headlines dominate with worst-case scenarios, markets often overshoot to the downside—only to rebound sharply once tensions stabilize. From the Gulf War to the initial shock of Russia-Ukraine, dips driven by geopolitical conflict have typically reversed within weeks or months, rewarding disciplined investors who stepped in when sentiment was at its worst. Buying the dip during periods of war anxiety isn’t about ignoring risk—it’s about recognizing when that risk is over-discounted. Unless conflict materially impacts global demand or financial systems, history shows these fear-based pullbacks are rarely long-lasting. With oil spiking and volatility up, the setup is classic: bad headlines, oversold conditions, and a growing disconnect between price action and fundamental trajectory. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/credit-crunch monthly 0.5 2025-05-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/36be28da-7fe2-40d9-a0e0-1dbe115ef44e/55766.jpg Newsletter Archive - Credit Crunch - This Week in the Market This week, markets will be grappling with the implications of Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over rising national debt and persistent fiscal deficits. While the downgrade is unlikely to lead to immediate market turmoil, it underscores long-term fiscal challenges that could influence investor sentiment and borrowing costs. Treasury yields have edged higher, reflecting concerns over the government's fiscal trajectory. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates will be closely monitored, as further tightening could impact economic growth and market dynamics. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/e8b1e590-b3bc-4d70-8867-435f5179aedf/quantum089.jpg Newsletter Archive - Credit Crunch - Quantum Computing The quantum computing sector has seen a recent surge in investment interest. This started with Google's new Willow Chip, which represents a significant advancement in quantum technology, potentially bringing us closer to achieving stability in the realm of quantum computing. The chip is designed to overcome some of the current challenges in quantum computing, particularly error rates and qubit reliability, which have historically limited the practical applications of quantum systems. Despite accomplishments like these, we believe that valuations for many of the stocks in the quantum computing space have been overdone. The excitement around breakthrough technologies like Google's Willow Chip among other steps, has driven investor enthusiasm, leading to inflated valuations for companies that may not yet be anywhere near profitability or commercial-scale success. We plan to take a short position on one of these companies, which will be outlined in the next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/ca13d500-12c7-43e1-a21f-1815857740c4/qbtsMay18.png Newsletter Archive - Credit Crunch - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/42025 monthly 0.5 2025-04-27 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/07044733-dc5a-4771-aff3-2408608e5884/numbers4370.jpg Newsletter Archive - Market Bottom? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/0a4501b4-f81e-4a24-8785-21cbad89dfb2/harvest4370.jpg Newsletter Archive - Market Bottom? - Tax Loss Harvesting Tax loss harvesting describes selling investments that have experienced losses to offset capital gains realized from other investments. This strategy reduces overall tax liability while maintaining desired market exposure. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/3cd6c5bd-a712-4d95-b96b-c257a75d9f70/ladder2378.jpg Newsletter Archive - Market Bottom? https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter-archive/tariff-trouble monthly 0.5 2025-04-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/55a28c5d-3fa2-4e68-b45d-842ff7d30b4f/pexels-photo-30869090.png Newsletter Archive - Tariff Trouble https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/23946c4d-20fa-42c5-9cd2-7964d8fb60f6/aiunamed.jpg Newsletter Archive - Tariff Trouble NVIDIA (NVDA), a global leader in AI and graphics processing, has faced a turbulent start to 2025. The stock is down significantly, currently trading around $87, reflecting, in our opinion, challenges primarily related to the broader recent market sell-offs in tech. Despite the pullback, NVIDIA remains the dominant player in AI infrastructure, which we believe is an industry that is not slowing. We (A4K Capital) are implementing a non-linear share purchase plan, which will be outlined in the next section. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/136801b2-4969-4ef2-89b9-908e0da3e8aa/nvda94chart.png Newsletter Archive - Tariff Trouble - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.a4kcapital.com/contact daily 0.75 2025-03-09 https://www.a4kcapital.com/about daily 0.75 2025-03-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/f8c520f2-5268-4b43-a8e4-c80280cd7908/A4KLogoBlack.png https://www.a4kcapital.com/services daily 0.75 2025-03-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1726065779.264187-DVBIMSQRRDBRSPBEYSIV/imgg-od3-2hmzbwv5.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1726065781.285617-OQPSPTCELSIIBMVICLFG/imgg-od3-husycs9u.png https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1726065782.543378-RACYEJPPJBQPEPWNQOON/imgg-od3-rkesgx70.png https://www.a4kcapital.com/home daily 1.0 2026-03-29 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/2981adb4-26fd-431e-957e-dd076dac9f75/A4KLogoWhite.png https://www.a4kcapital.com/newsletter daily 0.75 2025-04-07 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1741557332677-YWIQ5SD1B8QWV36ITR7G/unsplash-image-vRCelJ8dxYo.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/67b66793ef2d3c7566393efa/1741557408491-YQVRKOLIMHNSQBME2393/unsplash-image-lmV3gJSAgbo.jpg https://www.a4kcapital.com/careers daily 0.75 2025-03-09 https://www.a4kcapital.com/waitlist daily 0.75 2026-03-29