New Year, New Gains
2025 Annual Recap
2025 was defined by the collision of ambition with reality. The AI boom moved from early euphoria into a phase of validation as major investment in data center, cloud, and compute infrastructure began to translate into real-world deployment. The tariff scare added a temporary macro shock, but it also highlighted the resilience of the global supply chain and corporate balance sheet.
By year's end, market tone felt more grounded rather than broken. Tech leadership narrowed toward the highest quality operator, speculative excess faded, and capital rotated toward business with strong cash flow, pricing power, and long-term relevance.
2026 Market Outlook
This year, we expect many IPOs, lower interest rates, and even more AI hype.
What we're bullish on:
AI Stocks
Private Company Valuations
Gold/Silver
What we're bearish on:
Oil
Legacy Software Companies
We expect the S&P500 to be up around 20% next year.
Shorting Oil Via Futures
We are increasingly bearish on crude oil and believe the price is on a path toward a new 52-week low. Global supply remains elevated while demand growth show clear sign of slowing, especially as economic momentum cools across major regions. OPEC discipline weakens, U.S. shale output remains strong, and inventory continues to build. With macro conditions tightening and consumption growth fading, the oil market looks exposed to a deeper downside move.
Crude oil futures offer a direct and highly leveraged way to express this view, including both the standard WTI contract and the Micro WTI contract. Each standard contract controls 1,000 barrels of oil, meaning a one-dollar move equals a $1,000 profit or loss, while the Micro controls 100 barrels with a $100 move per dollar. This embedded leverage allows traders to scale position size with precision while still capturing meaningful returns from small price movements. Used properly, oil futures provide one of the most efficient ways to capitalize on a directional macro trade.
Disclaimer: At any time, A4K Capital and its affiliates may hold positions in the assets and/or contracts discussed. The content in this newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. A4K Capital and its affiliates are not responsible for any financial losses or decisions made based on the information provided.
